B1G: Halfway
The Big Ten has surpassed the half way point of conference play and the race for the regular season title has narrowed to three teams: Northwestern, Michigan, and Minnesota.
Find our previous breakdowns below:
Week One
Week Two
Week Three
LOOKING BACK
Then No. 21 Wisconsin at then No. 25 Northwestern
Wow, wow, wow, wow! Did Northwestern ever deliver. As expected his was a scrappy, back-and-fourth series with many twists and turns. What many didn’t expect was a Northwestern sweep. The Wildcats’ Danielle Williams was strong picking up two wins including a 10-inning barn burner and while she did give up four earned runs in that contest she struck out 12 and only issued two walks. Then, the Northwestern offense was able to string enough together to secure the 5-4 victory.
In game two the Wildcats relied on their bullpen and secondary arms; Kenna Wilkey, Kaley Winegarner, and Morgan Newport were able to hold Wisconsin’s offense down enough for their offense to take over. It wasn’t necessarily pretty but it got the job done.
We learned things about both of these programs throughout this series:
1) they are both scrappy, gritty teams. If you’ve been following the Big Ten over the years, this isn’t anything new, especially with Northwestern but over the course of this past weekend that was evermore evident.
2) Wisconsin’s offensive pop can hold up against stronger pitching, the consistency just needs to be develop. Wisconsin’s played a bit of a lopsided schedule with a few contests against strong programs but the Badgers haven’t seen a ton of the country’s top tier pitching. In their two contests against Texas they did not face Texas ace, Miranda Elish. Putting up eight hits and four runs against one of the nation’s best in Danielle Williams is no small feat.
3) Northwestern may enough to “win ugly”. Like we said, the Badgers have a lot of pop and talent through their offensive lineup and while the pitching staff during game two did surrender five runs they still did enough to win the game. Now, against even stronger lineups and opponent pitching (e.g. postseason) they may need to lock it down even further but for the Big Ten and the rest of their conference schedule, this was a big positive.
Then No. 24 Michigan at Ohio State
The Buckeyes managed to pick up an eight inning walk-off victory versus the Wolverines. As touched on in our last Big Ten preview, in this game, home field advantage was a big difference maker.
Michigan was strong and in the drivers seat through the first two games of the series but in game three the bats went a bit cold and the Wolverines could string enough together to pull out the win.
Morgan Ray picked up the victory in the circle for the Buckeyes and a lot of credit goes to her for coming back strong after a tough outing in game one surrendering six earned runs on five hits over 2.2 innings of work.
The loss was Michigan’s first of the regular season, moving Northwestern into full control of their destiny. The win for Ohio State kept them strongly in the running to secure a top four seed in the Big Ten tournament which results in a huge first around bye.
Notre Dame at Purdue
While it wasn’t a conference matchup it is worth noting: Purdue picked up a big win defeating Notre Dame 10-1 in five innings!
LOOKING FORWARD
Indiana at Wisconsin
This could be considered the biggest Big Ten series of the weekend as both teams need to secure a series victory as a crucial part of their postseason resume, especially Indiana. We covered that last that Indiana should now be considered a “bubble team” for the NCAA Tournament. Not only that but with a 6-8 conference record the race for qualification and positioning in the Big Ten Tournament is getting tight; remember, only 12 of the conference’s 14 teams qualify for tournament play.
For Wisconsin, they are still in the mix for a top four seed but cannot afford many more losses as they chase Ohio State while fending off Illinois.
Tara Trainer and Emily Goodin are going to be the deciding factors in this series. If they pitch well, Indiana’s offense has proven they can squeak out runs one way or another. Important to note, the Hoosiers have only been shutout four times this season through 46 games. If they struggle, I think it could be tough for Indiana’s offense to keep up with Wisconsin’s “pop” especially against pitchers Kaitlyn Menz and Haley Hestekin.
Now No. 23 Michigan at Illinois
This series has the makings to be a high powered, run fest in Champaign, IL. The Illini and Wolverines have not faced off in regular season play since 2014; Michigan won the series but not before Illinois played spoiler in game one defeating them 10-2 in six innings.
I believe Illinois could pull out a victory this weekend but it’s probably going to need to be a high scoring affair with home field advantage yet again playing a crucial role. Keep an eye out for what Illinois does with pitching assignments again this weekend. It appears that freshman, Sydney Sickels, remains the staff’s ace so saving her for games two and three could be very smart as beating Michigan’s Meghan Beaubien in the first game of any series is a tall task.
For Michigan, there is a bit of pressure as they are chasing Northwestern who sits atop the conference, undefeated, and Illinois is not a team to overlook. I will be interesting to watch who this younger Wolverine squad responds and performs.
Purdue at No. 24 Northwestern
Northwestern should be able to sweep this series matchup however Purdue could play spoiler and nab one from the Wildcats. Purdue is coming off a big, exciting six inning victory over Notre Dame and are riding that momentum into the weekend. The Boilermakers are a good tick better from previous seasons, already near doubling their win total from 2018 (playing a similar slightly easier but very similar schedule). They are hitting .40+ points higher, have hit 31 home runs compared to 25 last season, their pitching staff ERA is lower, and have hit 219 versus 152 last year.
Again, Northwestern at home should be able to sweep this series but it isn’t necessarily going to be “easy”. While Purdue is playing to keep their Big Ten Tournament hopes alive.
Now No. 10 Minnesota at Nebraska
Minnesota took care of business last week in a condensed two game series with Michigan State while Nebraska took the series from Purdue, 2-1.
Going to Lincoln, NE. is never easy; it is one of the nation’s premiere stadiums with a passionate fan base. The Gophers and Cornhuskers have played many intense games at Bowlin Stadium over the years. However, Minnesota should be able to come away with the sweep. The youth and inconsistency of Nebraska this season is a huge question mark especially against a powerful top of the lineup for the Gophers.
The biggest question looming over Minnesota is the lack of depth in the circle – it’s live and die by Amber Fiser. Last weekend Fiser pitched the complete first game of the doubleheader versus Michigan State but had to come on in relief during game two after only 3.2 innings. That being said, in terms of the regular season, the Gophers can’t lose any more contests which posses the questions: how much of Fiser will we see this weekend? How much longer can she carry the load? And how will that bode through the end of season and into post season play?
BIG TEN WEEKLY AWARDS
PITCHER OF THE WEEK
Amber Fiser, Minnesota
PLAYER AND FRESHMAN OF THE WEEK
Lexie Blair, Michigan
FPN PROJECTIONS
Just for fun, here are our prediction for how the Big Ten season awards would shake out if it all ended today! Note: these are based of Big Ten conference play stats as they are from week to week.
PLAYER OF THE YEAR
Hope Brandner, Minnesota
PITCHER OF THE YEAR
Danielle Williams, Northwestern
FRESHMAN OF THE YEAR
Lexie Blair, Michigan
