College Softball News

NCAA Tournament Projections 2.0

By Eric Lopez

Posted on April 25, 2018

May 13, 2018, is selection Sunday for the Division I NCAA Tournament.

Here is how the field may look if the season ended today.

Conference Rankings (Based on RPI)

1. SEC
2. Pac-12
3. Big 12
4. American
5. ACC
6. Big Ten
7. Sun Belt
8. A-SUN
9. Big West
10. CAA

Below is a breakdown by conference on who I believe would be in the NCAA Tournament field if the season ended today.
(#) RPI ranking of each team, (*) wins the automatic bid.

• ACC (3)– *Florida State (5), Notre Dame (43), Boston College (49)
• American (3):  * USF (40),  Wichita State (28), Houston (42)
• Big East (1) * DePaul (73)
• Big 12 (4):  *Oklahoma(6), Baylor (15),  Oklahoma State (26),  Texas (35)
• Big Ten (5):  *Michigan (29), Nebraska (34), Ohio State (32) Minnesota (25), Northwestern (36),
• Pac-12 (7):   *Washington (2),Oregon (1), UCLA (3),  Arizona State (8), Arizona (10), Oregon State (21), California (30)
• SEC (13):   *Florida (4), Georgia (7) Tennessee (9),South Carolina (11), LSU (12), Texas AM (13), Auburn (14),  Arkansas (18), Mississippi State (19), Kentucky (16), Alabama (17),  Missouri (23), Ole Miss (33)
• A-10 (1): *UMass
• America East (1): *UMass-Lowell
• A-Sun (1): *Kennesaw State (37)
• Big Sky (1): *Weber State
• Big South (1): *Liberty (39)
• Big West (2):  *Cal State Fullerton (58), Long Beach State (20)
• CAA (2):  *Hofstra (27), James Madison (31)
• C-USA (1) : * Louisiana Tech (71)
• Horizon (1):  *Illinois-Chicago
• Ivy (1):  *Harvard
• MAAC (1): *Monmouth
• MAC (1):  *Ohio (72)
• MEAC (1):  *Florida A&M
• MVC (1):  *Drake (38)
• MWC (1): * Fresno State (65)
• NEC (1): * Saint Francis
• OVC (1): * Jacksonville State
• Patriot( 1): * Bucknell at Boston U
• Southern (1): *UNCG (47)
• Southland (1):  *McNeese State (48)
• Summit (1): * North Dakota State (59)
• Sun Belt (2): * Texas State (24), Louisiana Lafayette (22)
• SWAC (1):  * Texas Southern
• WAC (1):  *New Mexico State
• WCC (1): * BYU (51)

Last four In

1. Missouri (23)
2. James Madison (31)
3. California (30)
4. Boston College (49)

First six out

1. Tulsa (50)
2. Lipscomb (52)
3. Florida Gulf Coast (41)
4. Wisconsin (55)
5. UCF (61)
6. San Jose State (44)

Bubble Teams
(School | Record vs Top 100 | Record vs Top 50 | Notable Wins)

• Missouri (15-24) (10-20): LSU, Miss State, Georgia, Auburn twice, Arkansas, USF twice
• Northwestern (14-11) (9-8): Alabama, Minnesota twice, Nebraska twice, Ohio St twice, Houston
• Houston (17-13) (9-8): Ole Miss, Texas, Wichita State twice, USF, UCF, Tulsa twice
• Wichita State (16-16) (8-12): Nebraska twice, Texas, Arkansas, Oklahoma State twice, Houston, Tulsa
• UCF (13-11) (8-7): Florida, Long Beach State, Hofstra, Houston twice, Tulsa Three times.
• Notre Dame (18-14) (7-8): Minnesota twice, Michigan, Louisville 3 times, Boston College
• Ole Miss (7-17) (7-15): Oregon, Texas, South Carolina, LSU, Alabama, Auburn, Miss State
• Boston College (14-16) (6-10): Florida State, Texas State, Ole Miss, Nebraska, Notre Dame twice
• Nebraska (13-14) (6-13): Texas A&M, Wichita State, Northwestern, Boston College, Tulsa
• Tulsa (16-20) (6-13): Oklahoma State twice, Wichita State twice, USF, Houston
• California (11-13) (5-12): Long Beach State, Oregon State
• Florida Gulf Coast (9-12 (4-6): USF twice, Hofstra, Kennesaw State
• Wisconsin (11-15) (4-9): Auburn, Ohio State, Texas
• Lipscomb (10-9) (3-4): Ole Miss, Louisville, Houston
• Illinois (10-13) ( 3-6): Missouri twice, Northwestern
• North Carolina (17-17) (3-9): Notre Dame twice, Louisville, Wisconsin
• James Madison (14-9) (2-1): Long Beach State, California
• Louisville (13-15) (2-10) :  Northwestern twice
• San Jose State (7-14) (1-7): Long Beach State
• Pittsburgh  (14-12-1) (1-3): Florida State

Host Projections/ Top 50 records

1-Oregon (23-7)

2-UCLA (21-2)

3-Washington (19-5)

4- Oklahoma (12-2)

5- Florida (21-5)

6-Florida State (17-6)

7- Georgia (18-6)

8- Tennessee (18-8)

9- Arizona State (17-8)

10- Texas A&M (20-11)

11-South Carolina (16-9)

12- Arizona (13-13)

13- LSU (15-10)

14-Auburn (16-10)

15- Arkansas (10-11)

16- Alabama (12-15)

 In The Mix to Host  

Mississippi State (11-14)

Oklahoma State (10-10)

Baylor (8-11)

Oregon State (7-18)

Kentucky (6-13)

Michigan (6-5)

Some key series this weekend that have Conference Championships and or bubble team implications:

Florida Gulf Coast at Lipscomb: The winner of this series more than likely ends up as the second best option for the A-SUN to get into NCAA Tournament behind Kennesaw State, although both teams best shot to get into the field is to win A-SUN tournament.

Seattle at New Mexico State:  Showdown for WAC regular season title on the line.

McNeese State at Stephen F Austin:  Are two of the three teams that are in a three-way tie for first in the Southland along with Nicholls. McNeese has by far best the resume for an at-large bid and will host the Conference Tournament. Bubble teams will be rooting for McNeese to win that tournament.

UMass at Fordham: Showdown of top two teams in the A-10 with the winner being the favorite heading into the conference tournament for the automatic bid.

Boston College at Louisville: Huge bubble series. Louisville has the better RPI, but Boston College has the better resume as it relates to quality wins and a better record in the ACC. The winner of this series takes a big step as the possible third team out of the ACC to get invited to the NCAA Tournament. It’s a must-win series for Louisville; otherwise, the Cardinals will need a deep run in ACC Tournament.

Hofstra at James Madison: One of the great rivalries in College Softball will decide the CAA regular season title. The series means more for James Madison as they look to improve their at-large resume. Hofstra, who comes in up two games on Madison. They will face JMU and a hot Towson squad to end the regular season.

Michigan at Indiana: Who would have thought that this series would be the battle of the top two teams in the Big 10 standings? But that is the case as Michigan and Indiana come in No. 1-2 in the Big 10 standings.

Oregon at Washington: There are Pac-12 conference championship and National seeding ramifications in this series. If Oregon wins this series, they would have the best case for the number one overall national seed with series wins over UCLA and Washington.

UCF at USF: USF comes in with a one-game lead over Wichita State and two games over UCF in the American Conference. The winner of this series takes a significant step toward the conference regular season title. The loser may be on outside looking in for NCAA Tournament.