College Softball News

NCAA Tournament Projections 4.0

By Eric Lopez

Posted on May 10, 2018

May 13, 2018, is selection Sunday for the Division I NCAA Tournament.

Here is how the field may look if the season ended today.

Conference Rankings (Based on RPI)

1. SEC
2. Pac-12
3. Big 12
4. American
5. ACC
6. ASUN
7. Big Ten
8. Sun Belt
9. Big West
10. CAA
11. Mountain West
12. Missouri Valley
13. Big South
14. So Con
15. CUSA
16. Southland

Below is a breakdown by conference on who I believe would be in the NCAA Tournament field if the season ended today.

(#) RPI ranking of each team, (*) wins the automatic bid.

• ACC (3)– *Florida State (6), Notre Dame (43), Pittsburgh (48)
• American (4):  * Tulsa (59), USF (42),  Wichita State (32), Houston (35)
• Big East (1) * DePaul
• Big 12 (4):  *Oklahoma (3), Baylor (16),  Oklahoma State (26),  Texas (39)
• Big Ten (4):  *Michigan (30),  Ohio State (27), Minnesota (28), Northwestern (38)
• Pac-12 (7):   *Oregon (1), UCLA (2),Washington (5)  Arizona State (7), Arizona (12), California (29), Oregon State (24)
• SEC (12):   *Florida (4), Georgia (10) Tennessee (8),South Carolina (11), LSU (9), Texas AM (13), Auburn (17),  Arkansas (19), Mississippi State (20), Kentucky (14), Alabama (15),  Ole Miss (34)
• A-10 (1): *Fordham
• America East (1): *UMass-Lowell
• A-Sun (2): *Kennesaw State (41), Florida Gulf Coast (33)
• Big Sky (1): *Sacramento State
• Big South (1): *Liberty (36)
• Big West (2):  *Cal State Fullerton (47), Long Beach State (18)
• CAA (2):  *Hofstra (22) , James Madison (24)
• C-USA (1) : * Middle Tennessee
• Horizon (1):  *Illinois-Chicago
• Ivy (1):  *Harvard
• MAAC (1): *Monmouth
• MAC (1):  *Ohio
• MEAC (1):  *Bethune Cookman
• MVC (1):  *Drake (37)
• MWC (1): * Boise State
• NEC (1): * Saint Francis
• OVC (1): * Jacksonville State
• Patriot( 1): *  Boston U
• Southern (1): *UNCG (47)
• Southland (1):  *McNeese State (45)
• Summit (1): * North Dakota State (55)
• Sun Belt (2): * Texas State (31), Louisiana Lafayette (21)
• SWAC (1):  * Prairie View A&M
• WAC (1):  *New Mexico State
• WCC (1): * BYU (52)

Last four In

1-Oregon State (24)

2- Pittsburgh (48)

3- Florida Gulf Coast (33)

4- Notre Dame (43)

 

First Six out

1. Wisconsin (46)
2. UCF (61)
3. Boston College (53
4. San Jose State (49)
5. Illinois (58)
6. Nebraska (40)

• Oregon State had lost nine straight including a home loss to Seattle prior Utah series. Beavers won the series at Utah to be eligible for the NCAA Tournament. If the committee goes  strickly based on RPI, both Oregon State and Missouri will be in the tournament.
• Missouri paid Wichita State $5,000 to get out of a doubleheader at Wichita State and replaced them with Arkansas Pine Bluff. Without this transaction. Missouri would be under 500 for the season and miss the SEC Tournament by losing to Florida on Sunday despite the fact that the Gators started freshman Natalie Lugo. If the committee puts in Missouri, it would be sending the message that you can buy your way into the field of 64 and endorse this behavior which cost Wichita State two games against an SEC opponent at home which would have helped the Shockers and the American Conference from a RPI perspective. I do not believe Missouri should not be in NCAA Tournament.

Bubble Teams
(School | Record vs Top 100 | Record vs Top 50 | Record vs Top 25|Notable Wins)

• Northwestern (16-13) (10-10) (1-4): Alabama, Minnesota twice, Nebraska twice, Ohio St twice, Houston
• Ohio State  (18-19) (12-7) (0-2) : Wichita State twice, Texas, Louisville twice, Cal State Fullerton
• Houston (22-14) (7-8) (1-3): Ole Miss, Texas, Wichita State twice, USF, UCF, Tulsa twice
• Wichita State (18-18) (8-12) (1-4): Nebraska twice, Texas, Arkansas, Oklahoma State twice, Houston, Tulsa, USF
• UCF (16-13) (6-9) (3-2): Florida, Long Beach State, Hofstra, Houston twice, Tulsa Three times, USF, Illinois
• Notre Dame (17-16) (7-8) (1-6): Minnesota twice, Michigan, Louisville 3 times, Boston College, FSU
• Ole Miss (9-21) (9-18) (8-17): Oregon, Texas, South Carolina, LSU, Alabama, Auburn, Miss State, Georgia twice
• Boston College (17-20) (6-13) (1-7): Florida State, Texas State, Ole Miss, Nebraska, Notre Dame twice
• Nebraska (12-18) (5-15) (1-5): Texas A&M, Wichita State, Northwestern, Boston College, Tulsa
• Tulsa (16-20) (6-13) (0-3): Oklahoma State twice, Wichita State twice, USF, Houston
• California (13-16) (6-15) (2-15): Long Beach State, Oregon State
• Texas (13-21) (6-20)(1-11) : Arizona, Texas State, Oklahoma State, Michigan, Houston, Wisconsin
• Florida Gulf Coast (12-13) (5-6) (1-4): USF twice, Hofstra, Kennesaw State
• Wisconsin (16-14) (10-13) (1-4): Auburn, Ohio State, Texas, Nebraska  3 times, Northwestern twice
• Pittsburgh (18-13-1) (4-6) (1-2) : Florida State, Louisville twice
• Lipscomb (9-10) (4-5) (0-0): Ole Miss, Louisville, Houston, Florida Gulf Coast
• FIU (13-15) (5-8) (2-4) : South Carolina, Florida, FGCU twice, Pittsburgh
• Longwood (11-6) (4-2) (1-1) : James Madison, California, Liberty twice
• Illinois (11-14) ( 6-10) (2-2): Missouri twice, Northwestern, Nebraska twice, Pittsburgh
• McNeese State (8-11) (3-7) (3-6) : Florida State, Baylor, Arkansas
• Louisville (14-18) (2-12) (0-5) :  Northwestern twice, Boston College 3 times.
• Missouri (15-27) (11-23) (6-21) : Auburn twice, USF twice, Arkansas, LSU
• Oregon State (11-25) (7-24) (3-22) : Oregon, Arizona State, Missouri, Oklahoma St twice

Host Projections/ Top 50 records/ Top 25 records/ Teams projected to be in regional

1-Oregon (29-7) (18-6)

2- Florida (29-6) (25-6)

3-UCLA (27-2) (13-2)

4-Oklahoma (18-2) (8-2)

5- Washington (23-8) (11-8)

6-Florida State (19-8) (6-4)

7- South Carolina (20-11) (16-10)

8- Arizona State (22-8) (8-8)

9- Tennessee (22-10) (17-10)

10- LSU (19-12) (14-11)

11-Georgia (19-9) (16-7)

12- Arkansas (16-14) (10-12)

13- Arizona (18-13) (7-10)

14- Alabama (15-17) (12-15)

15- Baylor (12-12) (4-5)

16- Texas A&M (19-15) (11-13)

 In The Mix to Host  

Auburn (16-14) (10-12)