College Softball News

NCAA Tournament Projections 1.0

By Eric Lopez

Posted on April 18, 2018

Selection Sunday is May 13, 2018. Over the next few weeks, we will break down who we think will make the NCAA Tournament as well host regionals.

Note that this is part of our inner circle offerings but free today. Future updated Projections will be available to our members.  Become a member today!

Conference Rankings (RPI Based)

1. SEC
2. Pac 12
3. Big 12
4. American
5. ACC
6. Big Ten
7. Sun Belt
8. A-SUN

Below is a breakdown by conference on who I believe would be in the NCAA Tournament field if the season ended today.
(#) RPI ranking of each team, (*) wins the automatic bid.

• ACC (3)– *Florida State (7), Notre Dame (39), Boston College (55)
• American (4):  * USF (37),  Wichita State (34), UCF (56), Houston (45)
• Big East (1) * DePaul (75)
• Big 12 (4):  *Oklahoma(6), Baylor (20),  Oklahoma State (25),  Texas (31)
• Big Ten (5):  *Michigan (27), Nebraska (30), Ohio State (32) Minnesota (28), Northwestern (36),
• Pac-12 (6):   *Washington (2),Oregon (1), UCLA (3),  Arizona State (4), Arizona (11), Oregon State (15),
• SEC (13):   *Florida (5), Georgia (8) Tennessee (9),South Carolina (10), LSU (13), Texas AM (12), Auburn (14),  Arkansas (17), Mississippi State (21), Kentucky (19), Alabama (16),  Missouri (22), Ole Miss (35)
• A-10 (1): *UMass (62)
• America East (1): *UMass-Lowell
• A-Sun (1): *Kennesaw State (42)
• Big Sky (1): *North Dakota
• Big South (1): *Liberty (40),
• Big West (2):  *Cal State Fullerton (64), Long Beach State (18)
• CAA (2):  *Hofstra (22), James Madison (34)
• C-USA (1) : * Louisiana Tech (71)
• Horizon (1):  *Northern Kentucky
• Ivy (1):  *Harvard
• MAAC (1): *Monmouth
• MAC (1):  *Ohio (81)
• MEAC (1):  *Florida A&M
• MVC (1):  *Drake (41)
• MWC (1): * Fresno State (63)
• NEC (1): * Saint Francis
• OVC (1): * Eastern Illinois (69)
• Patriot( 1): * Bucknell
• Southern (1): *UNCG (47)
• Southland (1):  *McNeese State (51)
• Summit (1): * North Dakota State (66)
• Sun Belt (2): Louisiana-Lafayette (23), Texas State (24)
• SWAC (1):  * Jackson State
• WAC (1):  *New Mexico State
• WCC (1): * BYU (52)

Last four In

1. Boston College
2. Houston
3. Ole Miss
4. UCF

First six out

1. Louisville
2. Tulsa
3. Lipscomb
4. Wisconsin
5. Florida Gulf Coast
6. North Carolina

Bubble Teams
(School | Record vs Top 100 | Record vs Top 50 | Notable Wins)

• Missouri (15-21) (11-17): LSU, Mississippi State, Georgia, Auburn twice, Arkansas, USF twice
• North Carolina (14-15) (4-10): Notre Dame twice, Louisville, Wisconsin, UCF
• Northwestern (13-11) (9-8): Alabama, Minnesota twice, Nebraska twice, Ohio St twice, Houston
• Notre Dame (13-11) (6-5): Michigan, Minnesota twice, at Louisville three times
• Nebraska (13-11) (5-9): Texas A&M, Wichita State, Northwestern
• Wichita State (12-16) (7-12): Nebraska twice, Texas, Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Houston, Tulsa
• UCF (13-8) (8-4): Florida, Long Beach State, Hofstra, Houston twice, Tulsa three times
• Louisville (12-12) (2-8): Northwestern twice, UCF
• Houston (11-12) (5-8): Ole Miss, Texas, UCF, USF
• Wisconsin (11-15) (4-9): Auburn, Ohio State, Texas
• Tulsa (10-18) (5-8): Oklahoma State twice, Wichita State twice, USF
• Lipscomb (10-7) (3-2): Ole Miss, Louisville, Houston
• Florida Gulf Coast (9-12) (4-6): Hofstra, USF twice, Kennesaw State
• Ole Miss (8-17) (6-15): Oregon, South Carolina, LSU, Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State
• Boston College (8-15) (4-9) Florida State, Texas State, Ole Miss, Nebraska
• California (8-13) (2-12): Long Beach State, Oregon State
• Utah (5-17) (2-15): Texas A&M, Texas State
• San Jose State (5-13) (1-8): Long Beach State

Where will the Sooners be seeded? Recent seeding of Oklahoma has been a debate over the last few years. The committee has, in our opinion,  seeded the Sooners lower than they should be in recent years. It is as if the committee is looking at what the numbers say more then the eyeball test.  The eyeball test says the Sooners are easily a top-four seed. But will the committee once again drop Oklahoma in the seeding due to lack of wins against the top 50 compared to other host sites?

The other question is, will Alabama host?  The Crimson Tide have always hosted a regional. This year they are on the fence with a tough schedule remaining. Here is the breakdown as to how I see it currently.

Host Projections | Record vs. Top 50

1. Washington (20-2)
2. Oklahoma (10-1)
3. Oregon (22-7)
4. UCLA (18-2)
5. Florida (18-5)
6. Arizona State (16-6)
7. Florida State (12-4)
8. Georgia (16-5)
9. Tennessee (16-7)
10. Texas A&M (17-9)
11. South Carolina (13-9)
12. Arizona (13-12)
13. LSU (11-9)
14. Auburn (14-10)
15. Arkansas (9-8)
16. Alabama (8-13)

In The Mix to Host

1. Mississippi State (10-10)
2. Oklahoma State (9-8)
3. Oregon State (7-16)
4. Michigan (6-5)
5. Baylor (6-10)
6. Texas State (5-7)
7. Long Beach State (5-6)
8. Kentucky (5-11)
9. Hofstra (3-5)
10. Louisiana (3-7)