The 2016 NCAA tournament started with with 64 teams and we are now down to 16. While the regional games did not produce a large number of upsets, the super regional games just might. The vaunted SEC advanced six teams to the super regional, more than any other conference. Right behind them is the Pac-12 and their five teams. It would be safe to assume that both conferences will be represented at the 2016 WCWS. Tennessee and Kentucky were the two teams that were upset in the first round. That was at the hands of Arizona and Utah. So that makes it 2-0 Pac-12 vs. the SEC . Who will get knocked out this week? Below we break the games downs and offer our predictions.
No. 1 Florida vs. No. 16 Georgia
(The “No.” is based on seed not rank)
Barring a complete collapse this should be a sweep by the Gators. To be frank the fact that Georgia was a host to a regional is baffling. Further they were given a very soft region with the other three teams hovering around .500. They did drop a game in the regional but bounced back to defeat Oklahoma State to advance. Florida did not surrender a single run in their region and out scored their opponents 24-0 over three games and the Gator pitching staff only gave up five hits total. With all that said we are not saying Georgia is a bad team and should not be in the tournament, it just seemed that there were several other teams that should have hosted. These two have not played yet this season. Georgia does have offensive power and speed. The main issue for the Bulldogs is depth in the circle. Chelsea Wilkinson went 2-0 for the Bulldogs with 26 strikeouts over 17 innings and only gave up two runs. She would have got a third win but was pulled after the third inning of the final game. From the plate First baseman Tina Iosefa had a great regional hitting .538 with three home runs and seven RBI. Third baseman Alyssa DiCarlo hit .500 with five RBI and two doubles. They also have speed at the top with sisters Sydni and Cortni Emanuel.
Florida has outstanding depth in the circle and that is one big reason they have been so good this year. They enter the super regional with a team ERA of 0.86. At the regional they only used freshman standout Kelly Barnhill for one inning and she recorded three strikeouts. Aleshia Ocasio posted a 2-0 record giving up just one run while recording 14 strikeouts over nine innings of work. Delanie Gourley went seven innings with 13 strikeouts and only gave up one hit. This may be one of the best full pitching staffs we have seen in sometime. The Gators are not a one trick pony and have excellent bats to go along with their pitching arms. Three players stood out last weekend in Kirsti Merritt, Amanda Lorenz and Nicole DeWitt. Merritt went 4-for-8 with two RBI. DeWitt showed some power going 3-for-7 with a triple and home run for six RBI. Lorenz was 5-for-10 with a home run and three RBI. Although they are not a power hitting team in comparison to some of the others in the tournament, they do get hits and put pressure on pitchers and opposing defenses.
On paper Florida is simply the better team. The fact the Georgia may have to solely rely on Wilkinson may be what hurts them the most. It will be interesting to see how the Georgia bats match up with the Gator pitching though. Florida is also the better team defensively committing half of the errors (25) that Georgia (52) has. If Wilkinson is on her game she may be able to keep Georgia in this, and with their power they may be able to steal a game. With that said we think the Florida is just too good in all areas and will sweep the Bulldogs in two.
No. 8 Florida State vs. Utah
Florida State is playing well heading into this, but one concern may be the lack of runs. In three games at the regional they only managed seven runs total. The good news is that they only gave up one. In their first game of regional play the Seminoles needed a no-hitter by Jessica Burroughs to get past Florida A&M whose Keny Pereira threw a one-hitter. Jessica Warren was the best offensive producer at the regional going 4-for-8 with two doubles and two RBI. Other than that the Seminole offense did not do much. Burroughs was rock solid throwing the no-hitter and racking up 17 strikeouts in just 10 innings of work. They were able to give her some rest because Meghan King was also throwing well and picked up a win and allowed no runs over 11 innings.
Utah comes in after taking two of three from No. 9 Kentucky. They rely on solid pitching and timely hitting. Their numbers will not wow you, but they find ways to win. At the plate Kay Kay Fronda was the most productive at the regional going 7-for-13. She was a sub .300 hitter in the regular season. They will look for their seasons best hitter Hannah Flippen to get things on track against the Seminoles. Flippen was 3-for-8 in the regional but hit .422 in the regular season with 13 home runs. The Utes use two pitchers in Katie Donovan and Miranda Viramontes. Donovan went 2-0 in the regional. She posted a 2.31 ERA on the season with 139 strikeout over 173 innings. Viramontes also saw a fair amount of action this season and at the regional. She comes into the super regional with a 2.70 ERA and 89 strikeouts over 116.2 innings.
Florida State is the favorite but their lack of run production should be a concern. This regional was not the norm as during the season they posted a .326 team average and a .434 on-base percentage. Utah is the team with momentum after already securing one upset. Can they do it again is the biggest question. They will also need some of their hitters to take a step forward and hope their pitching holds up like it did in the regional. This one may be tighter than some would think. We are leaning Florida State, but we also would not be shocked to see the Utes pull another upset.
No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 12 UCLA
These two teams met back in early April with the Bruins taking two of three from the Ducks at Oregon. After that the Ducks went on a 15 game winning streak. Pac-12 fans are not all that happy with the overall seeds and the fact that these two conference giants have to meet in the super regional. The SEC also has two teams playing each other this round in Florida and Georgia. The whole seeding process is a mystery to most and with just about zero transparency its a topic better suited for another day. Yes Oregon dropped two of three, but since then they appear to be a different team with staff Ace Cheridan Hawkins rounding back into form. Hawkins picked up two of the three wins for the Ducks in the regional allowing just four hits over 11.2 innings. In the April series Hawkins was rocked by the Bruins for 8 runs in just 6.2 innings. Megan Kleist got the only win over UCLA and had pitched very well, matter of fact for most the season she was considered the Ace in the rotation. Oregon looked great in all three games last week winning by a combined score of 22-1. The bats were alive for the Ducks. who have 93 home runs on the season. Leading the way where Nikki Udria and Koral Costa the same two who led the team all year. Udria went 5-for-10 with five RBI and Costa batted .555 in the regional.
UCLA also went 3-0 in their region, but their games were a bit closer. The Bruins are not a “wow” team that puts up crazy statistics. They are a well balanced team that can hit for average and they rely on a balanced attack. They will use three pitchers along the way as well. We would not consider pitching one of their strengths as they carry a team ERA of 3.62. Delaney Spaulding is their most dangerous hitter and ent 4-for-8 in the regional with five RBI. She is hitting .350 on the season with 17 home runs. It is hard to predict how they will do, but one thing we know is that they can win softball games, which makes this an interesting series.
Coming into the game it appears that Oregon is really falling into stride. They have the bats and their pitching is back to where they expected it to be at the start of the season. Their combination of speed and power will give any pitcher and defense fits. They are also an aggressive team that can score in bunches. UCLA on the other hand does hold the edge in wins over one another and their consistent style of play makes them a threat in the series. In the end we are going with the hot hand and Oregon to win and advance to the WCWS.
No. 4 Auburn vs. Arizona
On paper some may not give Arizona much of a chance and on paper that makes sense. Auburn has a dangerous line-up and have found depth in the circle making them tough to beat. Arizona dispatched of No. 13 Tennessee in the regional. This may have been a surprise to some, but Tennessee had struggled with consistency. Earlier this month Tennessee dropped the hammer on Auburn winning both games impressively and both in five innings by scores of 10-2 and 12-1. Theoretically that bodes well for the Wildcats. Auburn seemed to struggle some at the plate in the region opener against Jacksonville State only garnering three hits a 2-1 win. The next time they faced Jacksonville State in the regional final they came alive winning 14-2. At the plate Emily Carosone went 5-of-9 at the regional with five RBI. She was the only Tiger player to get a hit in all three games. Auburn used five pitchers on the weekend as well. That is not a bad problem to have and gives the Auburn coaching staff options. The thing with Auburn is that they can score runs in a hurry. Their batting order is dangerous, but statistically they do not stand out as much as people would think with a team slash line of .329/.450/.542. This is very good and towards the top side of NCAA teams, but based on watching them, we would have thought those numbers to be even higher. They have 73 home runs on the season as well.
Arizona comes in with statistics well below that of the Tigers, but they are playing well right now which was made clear with their wins over Tennessee. They achieved this with balance. No one hitter stood out for the Wildcats and it appears that everyone contributed to their three wins. Katiyana Mauga is their power hitter with 21 home runs on the season to go with a .331 average. Arizona has speed and lots of it. What is even better is coach Candrea has a bunch of it off the bench. This gives him flexibility, if a power hitter reaches he can bring in the speed to add pressure to the defense. From the circle Arizona relies heavy on Danielle O’Toole who earned all three wins in the region games giving up just 17 hits over 19.1 innings. On the season she holds a 2.04 ERA over 202.2 innings.
This may prove to be one of the most interesting series of the weekend. Arizona seems to be on a roll while Auburn was just 4-4 over their last eight games of the season. This really will come down to the Auburn bats. If they are live and awake they are very dangerous. Arizona is not a team designed to be in a slug fest. So if it comes to that, the Wildcats may be in trouble. If it does not it is realistic the Arizona could pull a second straight upset.
No. 3 Oklahoma vs. No. 14 La-Lafayette
Oklahoma looked impressive cruising through their regional outscoring the opposition 19-3. Paige Parker threw all 19 innings for the Sooners giving up just 11 hits, two earned runs with 24 strikeouts. If Parker, who is 31-3 on the season, stays hot, she could carry them far. But relying on just one pitcher can cause its own issues. At the plate Shay knighten and Erin Miller put up strong numbers. Knighten hit .714 at the region tournament with four RBI. Miller hit .500 with three RBI as well. At this time Oklahoma appears to be hitting on all cylinders and have won 24 games in a row. They have not lost since the first week of April. Even though they are the three seed, they may be a team that many people have overlooked with the SEC getting all of the attention.
One of the more dangerous teams in the tournament could be La-Lafayette (LLU). We say that because for a portion of their season they were without Lexi Elkins, who is arguably the best current hitter in college softball, for a portion of the year. She is back now making that offense a force to deal with. Elkins went 5-for-12 at the region tournament with four RBI and a home run. DJ Sanders also has a good weekend batting .545 with four RBI. In the circle Alex Stewart grabbed two wins including a nine inning win over Texas A&M where she did give up six earned runs. Coach Lotief had faith in her and left her in the entire game. They have an impressive offense with a slash line of .341/.451/.624 with 104 home runs. You have to wonder what that would have looked like with Elkins playing all season.
This should be a great series to watch and could really go either way. If this one does not go three games we would be surprised. Can Parker keep the Cajun bats at bay? The answer to that will be a big piece of the puzzle. Oklahoma will get their fair share of runs, but we are guessing whoever wins may need five or six per game to take the series. A slight edge to Oklahoma, but an upset in not out of the realm of possibility.
No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 11 Washington
Alabama looked sharp from a pitching perspective last weekend at the regional. They allowed just one run while scoring 14. Alexis Osorio was outstanding for the Tide going 2-0 with 28 strikeouts, eight hits, and no runs over 16.2 innings. That is good news for Alabama fans as she did not have the same year as she did in 2015. If she is rounding back into that form she could shut teams down. Sydney Littlejohn also picked a win and has been sharp as of late. As usual Haylie McCleney looked good at the plate and is one of the best table setters in the game. She went 5-for-8 with six runs. Other than her, none of the other Alabama hitters stood out. They will need to step up with Washington who is a team that can put runs up. The Tide are well coached and do not make a lot of mistakes but are good at capitalizing on others.
Washington rolls in after putting up 34 runs in three games at the regional they hosted. The issue with that is they also gave up 15 runs. There is no doubt that the Huskies have live bats. Julia DePonte hit .600 with seven RBI on the weekend and teammate Casey Stangel hit .555 with four RBI. Not to be out down they also got a solid performance from Ali Aguilar who hit .363 with five RBI of her own. Pitching is a bit more of an issue. They used three different pitchers over the weekend and none turned in a dominating performance. They will need to be better this weekend even if it appears that Alabama is not producing runs in bunches.
Interesting series here that pits the Washington bats against the Alabama arms. If Osorio is really back to her form she will be tough on the Washington batters. If she not, well then this could get interesting real fast.
No. 7 James Madison vs. No. 10 LSU
The mid-major team versus a SEC power house, what more could a softball fan want. Neither of these teams came out of overly difficult regions. You also have two of the best pitching staffs in the country. LSU has a rare situation with four blue chip pitchers available to them and many would argue the JMU has the best one, two punch. LSU did not have much difficulty in their region and Carley Hoover picked up two wins over 9.2 innings while striking out 12. None of the LSU pitchers threw a lot of innings meaning they will be fresh for this series. At the plate Sahvanna Jaquish hit .571 with five RBI and Sandra Simmons went 5-of-9, while teammate Emily Griggs hit .500 on the weekend. They will be facing a tougher test this weekend against the JMU staff. The one thing LSU has to do is keep the errors to a minimum. Defense has been an area of weakness all season long.
JMU looked strong winning their three games by a combines score of 22-2. They have two shut down pitchers in Megan Good and Jailyn Ford. Good pitched in two of the three wins giving up just one run with 16 strikeouts over 14 innings of work. Ford cruised as well in her start giving up just one run with eight strikeouts. Combined the two are 49-4 on the season with a 0.89 ERA. Erica Field led them from the plate last week batting .571. Hitting is not the strength of this team, neither is power. They hit just 52 home runs on the year and have a team batting average just under .300. They do mange to score runs though and outscored the opposition this year 4-1.
This comes down to two things in our opinion. The first is pitching. Both have strong pitchers and the scoring in this should be low. That leads us to the second thing which is errors. LSU committed a significant amount of errors on the season with 76, while JMU had just 45. Close pitcher dual type of games almost always come down to mistakes and which team makes them. With that said we are going with JMU.
No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 15 Missouri
Michigan clearly rebounded from their conference championship loss to Minnesota by shutting down all of their opponents at the region they hosted. They won three games by a combined score of 20-2. Missouri was just as impressive winning their three games by a combined score of 26-0. Michigan in our opinion has maybe the best “nine” in college softball when it comes to their batting order. Their slash line is impressive .356/.468/.611 with 83 home runs on the season. Five of their starting nine are batting above .350 and have combined for 53 home runs. No surprise that Sierra Romero had a good weekend going 4-for-9 with four RBI and two home runs. Kelly Christner also had a good weekend batting .500 with two RBI. Megan Betsa continued her outstanding season racking up 24 strikeouts over 17 innings resulting in three wins. If Betsa stays the course she has been on and the Wolverines continue to hit like they have all season they will be a handful.
Missouri was on fire at their region tournament not having a single game go the full seven innings. Missouri has speed and good contact hitters. Taylor Gadbois batted .545 with five runs and right with her is Emily Crane who hit .714 with six runs. These two both have speed and can make a defense pay for the smallest of mistakes. Another big bright spot was the 16 shutout innings thrown by Paige Lowary. Lowary gave up just seven hits and struck out 17. Missouri will look to use that speed to put some pressure on that middle infield of Michigan which combined accounts for nearly half (15) of the 31 errors the Wolverines have committed. Also Lowary will need to be just as sharp as she was last week to keep the Michigan bats at bay.
If Missouri plays like they did last week this series could get interesting. Michigan, in our opinion, has the upper hand when it comes to offense though. Betsa has also been rock solid all season which is why we will be going Michigan in this game.
