B1G: Endgame
See what we did there?!
Anyway, this weekend is the final weekend of the 2019 Big Ten Regular Season and top to bottom the race for the title, Big Ten tournament qualification and positioning, post season resume building, and more. Let’s dive in and break it all down!
Find our previous breakdowns below:
Week One
Week Two
Week Three
Week Four
Week Five
THE NITTY, GRITTY
There are three major pieces in motion during this final weekend of Big Ten play: who earns the final spots in the Big Ten tournament, who secures the fourth seed, and of course – who wins the title.
First and foremost, let’s look at the race for the regular season title. Michigan, Minnesota, and Northwestern are left standing with multiple scenarios in play. Below we break the most feasible situations down.
For MICHIGAN to win the title:
In any situation they need help as they do not control their destiny.
For a share of the title:
– Michigan sweeps their series and Northwestern losses one game.
– Michigan wins the series (2-1) and Northwestern drops two games.
For the outright title:
– Northwestern is swept by Minnesota and Michigan sweep their series.
– Northwestern losses two games while Michigan sweeps their series.
For MINNESOTA to win the title:
The Gophers must sweep the three game series and Michigan must lose at least one game this weekend. For Minnesota it’s all or nothing as a share of the title is also not possible.
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Due to the cancelled contest with Michigan State resulting in a two-game weekend instead of a true three-game series, the Gophers’ winning percentage has been thrown off. Currently, the Big Ten crowns based on that number. So, even if Minnesota wins the series with Northwestern, 2-1, (resulting in both teams having two losses in conference play and assuming Michigan also drops a game) because of winning percentage Minnesota would not qualify for a share of the title (unless that has very recently been changed but we have seen nothing to denote that is the case). More on this below.
Breakdown if Minnesota wins the series, 2-1:
– Minnesota Record: 20-2, .909 winning percentage
– Northwestern Record: 21-2, .913 WP
^^Northwestern still wins the title
Here’s how it looks in the event of a Minnesota sweep:
– Minnesota Record: 21-1, .954 WP
– Northwestern Record: 20-3, .869 WP
But Michigan is where it gets extra interesting if Minnesota sweeps:
– Michigan’s record if they sweep: 22-1, .9565 WP (edges out MN for the title)
– Michigan if they drop a contest this weekend: 21-2, .913 WP
For NORTHWESTERN to win the title:
The Wildcats it is pretty straight forward as they are in the driver’s seat: either win the series (2-1) to ensure at least a share of the regular season title or sweep Minnesota and claim the outright.
STORYLINES AND LOOKING FORWARD:
Winning Percentage
If the title is decided by .003 of a percentage, watch out for the fall out and tongue lashing that may come the Big Ten’s way. And maybe rightfully so? Being a northern conference, there has to be some language or rule in place on how games lost to weather handled in key situations? In past seasons, winning percentage of teams competing for the title and Big Ten tournament play as been an underlying story but as far as I know it hasn’t ultimately been the deciding factor in a champion or between the 12th-14th seeds. That could all change this year.
Let’s say it comes down to it and the only reason Minnesota could not claim an outright or share of the title is due to the cancelled contest with Michigan State. A snowstorm came through the Twin Cities area that weekend and disrupted the series. Due to the efforts by the support staff at Minnesota the teams were able to at least play two games. Here’s where things get dicey: it isn’t necessarily right to “punish” programs when nature doesn’t cooperate but at the same time, how do you address the situation? It’s also not other program’s fault there were weather complications canceling others games when they were able to and did play all 23 slated games. And while they may have the same amount of losses, they do have an additional win.
You could go head-to-head but there’s potentially another problem: Big Ten teams don’t play everyone, not even close. Minnesota and Michigan haven’t seen each other in the regular season since 2015, so that won’t always solve the problem either. There have been talks around the Big Ten coaches and conference on ways to structure the schedule so more of the top tier, top finishing programs can play each other during regular season which could help with some of these issues. But again, that’s also not an easy proposition or issue solve and comes with its own obstacles, problems, and concerns.
I don’t have the answer and it’s not an easy problem to address by any stretch but it will be interesting to watch this weekend play out with all of this in mind.
Who’s In, Who’s Out
Seeds 6-14 for the Big Ten Tournament are all up for grabs this weekend and of that, six programs are fighting to stay out of the 13th and 14th position which would eliminate them from postseason play (Purdue, Illinois, Penn State, Maryland, Iowa, Michigan State).
Purdue travels to Iowa and Rutgers hosts Michigan State in series where programs can win their way in by knocking out those in direct competition for the same spot.
No. 14 Northwestern at No. 9 Minnesota
What will arguably be the best series of the 2019 Big Ten season, Northwestern travels to Minnesota in what’s sure to be another battle between two programs who are very familiar with one another. The Wildcats and Gophers have duked it out over the years in contests that are always intense, full of offense, and back-and-fourth.
With two of the conference and country’s best in the circle (Amber Fiser, MN and Danielle Williams, NU) this series is going to come down to timely and “clutch” hitting as neither pitcher gives up much at the plate. Also look for them to both carry the load and throw a lot this weekend which could make things fun and offensively explosive as the weekend wears on. A struggle for both squads this season has been their depth in the circle and bullpen.
Outside of the obvious “hype” surrounding the regular season title implications this series also has huge ramifications for NCAA postseason as well as potential bids to host a regional.
BIG TEN WEEKLY AWARDS:
PLAYER OF THE WEEK
Faith Canfield, Michigan
PITCHER OF THE WEEK
Amber Fiser, Minnesota
Alex Storako, Michigan
FRESHMAN OF THE WEEK
Natalie DenHartog, Minnesota
Alex Storako, Michigan
FPN PROJECTIONS:
Just for fun, here are our prediction for how the Big Ten season awards would shake out if it all ended today! Note: these are based of Big Ten conference play stats as they are from week to week.
PLAYER OF THE YEAR
Faith Canfield, Michigan
PITCHER OF THE YEAR
(this will likely be decided this weekend’s NU v MN series)
Danielle Williams, Northwestern
FRESHMAN OF THE YEAR
Co-Winners
Natalie DenHartog, Minnesota
Danielle Williams, Northwestern
